What is Macquarie’s (ASX:MQG) dividend outlook for 2021?

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is often called the ASX’s fifth bank. This is a slightly misleading label, since Macquarie’s business model is very different to the other ASX banks like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) or Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC).

Sure, Macquarie does offer mortgages, credit cards, loans, savings accounts and term deposits like the other ASX banks. But they make up a small corner of Macquarie’s overall earnings pie. Far more significant is Macquarie’s investment banking business, as well as its hefty funds’ management arm.

But the ASX banks are also well-known for their dividend payments. Until the coronavirus pandemic, it was normal (even expected) that the banks would offer trailing,…