Why every pessimist is right (often to their cost)

You have to be very, very careful not to get sucked into pessimism. It can be very, very hard to shake.

Here’s a (fake) pessimist’s Twitter feed: (a story in 7 parts, that also never ends!)

First tweet:

#1 “Things are terrible, and will get worse”

A few months later, recovery starts:

#2 “Yeah, some of those data points look okay, but they’re misleading. Things aren’t getting any better”

A few months after that, the recovery takes hold:

#3 “Okay, I guess things are looking better, but a lot of it is still bad”

A year later, the economy is in good health. GDP growth is picking up, and unemployment is falling:

#4 “Sure, that’s okay, but growth could be even better, and unemployment could be…