Want to be ‘smart’? Or want to make money?

It’s not cool to take ‘victory laps’, especially when others have done it tough.

And I’m the first to criticise those who make bold (often outlandish) predictions.

After all, when they’re right, they claim victory, but when they’re wrong, they’re strangely quiet, hoping we’ll forget. (It’s a good strategy: when was the last time you saw a newspaper article reviewing some ‘experts’ bold claims?)

So, I’m treading carefully, here.

I still don’t do predictions.

They’re usually of two types.

They’re either consensus calls that are so close to the average to be useless when they’re right, and when they’re wrong they just say ‘well, we all were’.

Or, they’re outlandishly bold, seeking attention, or…