The one thing now that could kill the share market

An expert has warned share markets could crash in the coming quarter if one metric fails to stay in its favour.

Watermark Funds Management chief investment officer Justin Braitling told clients that the post-COVID “reflation trade may be maturing sooner than we previously thought”.

“Is a bubble forming in shares?” he said in a memo.

“Price signals in bond and currency markets are key to reflation. The US dollar, along with bond prices, peaked in March of last year when the share market bottomed.”

Braitling warned of dire consequences for share markets if the US dollar’s descent turns around to a rebound.

“In recent weeks, the US dollar is looking like it may have bottomed for now,” he said.

“If the low is in for…