Business
Why the iron ore bears will always end up disappointed – The Australian Financial Review
Iron ore price forecasts have been consistently underdone. Why do the pessimists keep getting it wrong?
Iron ore is by far Australias largest export. At current prices it represents up to 10 per cent of Australian GDP and royalties cover almost 20 per cent of Western Australias government revenue.
But despite its significance, a lot of iron ore commentary appears superficial or tentative. Theres coverage of day-to-day news, but analysts seem continually surprised by overall industry trends.
Take price as an example. In the past 15 years, there have been three troughs and two peaks. Long-term iron…
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