General
‘One-in-100-years’ flood talk disastrously misleading and should change, risk experts say
What does it mean when a natural disaster is described as a “one-in-50-years” or “one-in-100-years” event? Well, not what most people think and that has to change, according to a leading risk assessment expert.
Key points:
- A one-in-100-year flood has a 1 per cent chance of occurring any year
- Town planners use one-in-100-year floods to decide where housing can be built
- One-in-100-year floods are probably not becoming more common in NSW
Thomas Mortlock, from consultancy Risk Frontiers, said “100-year floods” don’t just happen once every 100 years.
In fact, 100-year floods have happened twice in a fortnight in the same place.
“In fact, it’s only about…
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