Navigating the ‘don’t know’ question remains the biggest challenge for governments

Nobody in politics, or public policy making, ever willingly ticks the “don’t know” box about where things are heading — even when it is actually humanly impossible to know where they are heading.

Economists, at least, are able to quantify (and/or hide behind) assumptions. Politicians are inclined to compare what they are doing with their predecessors to show that they are actually doing more/better than it might otherwise appear.

And so the political year ends — in a year of perhaps the greatest unknowns in our lifetimes — in much the same way.

When the Mid-Year Review of the Budget (in fact, a review just 10 weeks after the delayed annual budget) was released on Thursday, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg had every reason to be upbeat,…