Health
Get on top of the outbreaks and numbers will start to drop rapidly – The Age
It is not surprising that we haven’t yet seen a big dent in new case numbers because there are still many cases being found that are linked to existing outbreaks, and these will mask any reductions in the background rate.
All these modifications require edits to parameters in the model, including, most importantly, the rate of transmission, or effective reproductive rate.
In an evolving outbreak where evidence on intervention effectiveness is still being built, this is a challenge, and models need ongoing adjustment and fine tuning, with real-time analysis of new daily data strengthening predictions.
So models arent going to tell us how many cases we will have on Sunday, or over the next week, but the more we u…
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