Everything you need to know about the Coalition’s Newspoll “setback”

“A dose of Newspoll reality for Coalition”, the front page of The Australian reads today.

Let’s take the figures that matter. The Coalition’s primary vote is down three points to 39 per cent, while Labor’s is up two to also sit on 39. The two-party preferred vote has Labor in the lead, 52 to 48 per cent.

Rule number one of looking at polls is to never take one in isolation. It reflects a moment in time — when it was taken — that is already past. You compare it to other polls, like the one that Essential should have out tomorrow and, more importantly, look at the trend line and see if it’s a significant departure.

There’s a decline for the Coalition there, but go onto the fine print. See that bit about the…