As Victorians wait to see if the ‘circuit breaker’ has worked, epidemiologists weigh in on the role of lockdowns

There’s a good reason Victorians are nervous about today’s decision on whether or not the “circuit breaker” lockdown really will last for just five days.

We’ve been here before, and most of us can readily recall the bitter disappointment of watching weeks of strict restrictions drag into months last year as our second wave rolled on.

This time, however, Premier Daniel Andrews has said the strategy has already been working and the state is “well-placed” to move into a new phase from Wednesday night.

That’s partly because the source of all 19 cases linked to the cluster emanating from the Holiday Inn near Melbourne Airport at the start of the month have been successfully traced.

But even if Victoria sees off this snap lockdown tonight,…