‘Autumn predictability barrier’ means April is the toughest month to make climate forecasts

After the recent record rain and the previous summer’s record dry, what does this winter’s climate have in store? 

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting April to June to be likely wetter than average across the north of Australia and drier than average for the southern half of Queensland, inland parts of NSW and Victoria, and far eastern SA.

But making seasonal forecasts at this time of year is difficult, due to what forecasters call the “autumn predictability barrier”. 

“At this time of year, we’re probably at the…