Health
‘Compelling’ evidence air pollution worsens coronavirus – study – The Guardian
Exclusive: best analysis to date indicates significant increases in infections, hospital admissions and deaths

There is compelling evidence that air pollution significantly increases coronavirus infections, hospital admissions and deaths, according to the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date.
The research indicates that a small, single-unit increase in peoples long-term exposure to pollution particles raises infections and admissions by about 10% and deaths by 15%. The study took into account more than 20 other factors, including average population density, age, household size, occupation and obesity.
There is growing evidence from Europe, the US and China that dirty air makes the impact of Covid-19 worse. But the study of the outbreak in the Netherlands is unique because the worst air pollution there is not in cities but in some rural areas, due to intensive livestock farming.
This allows the big city effect to be ruled out, which is the idea that high air pollution simply coincides with urban populations whose density and deprivation may make them more susceptible to the virus.
The scientists are clear they have not proven a causal link between air pollution and worse coronavirus impacts. Conclusive evidence will only come with large amounts of data on individual people, which is not yet available, rather than average data for regions as used in the analysis.
But scientists said it was important to do the best research possible as understanding the link may be important in dealing with further Covid-19 outbreaks and could signal where subsequent waves will hit the hardest.
Q&A
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What are the best policies to reduce air pollution?
Most air pollution is produced by the burning of fossil fuels and waste, and this is the focus of the World Health Organizations global recommendations:
- Moving from coal and gas power stations and diesel generators to solar, wind and hydropower
- Prioritise walking, cycling and public transport over cars in urban areas and shift to electric cars
- Improve the energy efficiency of homes to reduce heating needs and avoid coal and wood burning inside
- Promote waste reduction and use incineration only when unavoidable and when emissions controls are in place
- Reduce the burning of stubble in fields upwind of cities
- Create green spaces in cities to help remove some pollutants
In the UK, the governments extensive research shows deterring polluting vehicles from city and town centres is by far the quickest, most cost-effective way to cut levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution, which are at illegal levels in most urban areas.
Other policies include:
- Retrofitting of buses, heavy goods vehicles and taxis, which is the next most effective option
- Scrappage schemes for older, polluting vehicles and subsidies for electric vehicles can also help
What are the best ways to avoid air pollution?
The solution to air pollution is stopping it at source but until that happens, experts including the British Lung Foundation (BLF) suggest the following:
- Avoid spending long periods of time in places where pollution builds up, such as busy roads
- If you travel on foot or a bike, using backstreet routes away from congested roads can cut exposure by half. Even on busy streets, cyclists experience less pollution than drivers
- Some scientists recommend parents use covers on their buggies to protect infants
- Go to work earlier, before the rush hour has begun and levels of pollution have built up
- When air pollution is high and if you have lung condition such as asthma, reduce or avoid strenuous outdoor exercise, or do your exercise inside
- There is very little evidence to recommend the use of face masks, according to the BLF
Thank you for your feedback.
Many scientists agree that air pollution is likely to be increasing the number and severity of Covid-19 infections, as dirty air is already known to inflame the lungs and cause respiratory and heart disease that make people more vulnerable. But not all agree that the evidence so far is good enough to demonstrate a large impact.
What I was struck by was this really was a strong relationship, said Prof Matthew Cole, who conducted the research with his colleagues Ceren Ozgen and Eric Strobl at the University of Birmingham, UK. Unlike most studies to date, the paper has been reviewed by independent scientists and accepted for publication in a journal, Environmental and Resource Economics.
The team concluded: Using detailed data we find compelling evidence of a positive relationship between air pollution, and particularly

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