General
Will Albo be elbowed? | The Spectator Australia
In 2005 American psychologist Philip E Tetlock published a book Expert Political Judgement in which he analysed 82,000 expert political and economic forecasts over 20 years and found that experts are no more reliable than non-specialists in guessing what is going to happen.
Effectively 50 per cent of the time a layperson will be equally correct as an “expert” in guessing an outcome.
So here is my guess as to the future of Anthony Albanese as leader of the federal Labor Party: he isn’t going to be chopped and will lead Labor to the next federal election despite the tsunami of negative coverage he has received.
The problem for the Labor Party is not Albanese per se, even though he languishes some 30 points behind Scott…
-
Business17 hours agoCould a small investor today match the historic returns of Warren Buffett?
-
Noosa News15 hours agoQueensland government to set up $400m energy investment fund
-
Business11 hours agoAustralian rare earths companies trading at record levels as China tightens export controls
-
Business9 hours agoWhat’s Macquarie’s price target on Mineral Resources shares?