Who’s going to win the Queensland election? It’s complicated

If polls really could foretell the future, rather than just being an imperfect model of the present, then the LNP should currently be cruising to victory in Queensland, because back in June and July they were well ahead of Labor. 

But that’s not what’s happening. 

As soon as the election campaign was on, the polls swapped around, and suddenly the LNP had to win the election from the ALP.  

But that’s not how either side has played the election. Labor has run an underdog campaign, scrapping over every point and niggling the LNP with little rabbit punches, all the way.  

Labor’s campaign has been relatively low-key, relying on the lack of COVID deaths in Queensland (there’s been only five, which is…