Perhaps unsurprisingly, economic pundits foresaw a recession on Australia’s horizon, and in mid-2020 Treasurer Josh Frydenberg conceded Australia would enter into a technical recession upon release of the June quarter GDP data.
Australia’s GDP fell 0.3% in seasonally adjusted, chain volume terms in the March quarter 2020 and growth slowed to 1.4% through the year.
Recessions are typically classified as an outcome resulting from negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters.
ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said, “this was the slowest through-the-year growth since September 2009 when Australia was in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis and captures just the beginning of the expected economic effects of COVID-19.”
Social distancing and reduced business activities have certainly affected the country’s economic health, but a timeline for a vaccine and the projected longevity of the pandemic are not yet confirmed, which makes it difficult to tell if a recession will occur as a passing moment or have severe lingering effects on the country. It was perhaps best said by Sydney Morning Herald Senior Economic Writer Jessica Irvine on March 13, 2020:
“What really matters is if the economy loses so much momentum that firms start to anticipate a sustained period of revenue shrinkage. In such a world, companies may decide to lay off their workers in a bid to avoid going insolvent, or they may just go under, regardless.
“If lots of companies are downsizing at the same time, sacked workers may find it hard to pick up another job. If they can’t get another job, they can’t pay their mortgages. If they can’t pay their mortgages, the bank might sell their homes.
“If that happens to enough people, home values may fall. That could lead even more people to spend even less, forcing even more job losses. And so forth.”